Comparison of jockey changes and training times in horse racing handicap
When horse breeds are at a disadvantage, a lot of time is spent evaluating each of several factors. Unfortunately, many times we fail to see the big picture because we don’t put the factors together to see the big picture. In other words, we fail to connect the dots.
Training times can tell a great story about a horse’s conditioning and readiness to win, especially when used in conjunction with other data that is available from past performances or the race schedule. One big change that is usually considered when handicap horse racing is the jockey switch.
When a rider gets off a mount it is a big problem and many bettors want to know why the rider got off the mount. They also compare one broker to another to determine if it will improve the broker’s chances of winning. In the case of a trainee getting on a horse, the trainer’s reasoning is pretty obvious. The conditioner wanted the horse to have the advantage of carrying less weight than the other runners, since trainees receive a weight allowance.
But what is the reason a good jockey gets on or off a horse? Does it mean the horse is improving? Has the jockey’s agent seen anything? Or is the rider just getting paid to ride the horse and go get some air? Looking at the horse at the post parade can help you determine if he has improved, but there is another way to check on the runner.
Watch the workouts and see what they can tell you. There are several things you should look for. First, there are the actual times of the morning jobs. Have they gotten faster? Do you see an improvement in time that would indicate that the runner is getting faster and in better shape to compete? If so and a better rider gets on the horse, that can be a very positive sign.
On the other hand, even if times don’t improve, a change in frequency may mean the runner is under more pressure to get in shape. It can also mean that the animal is getting fit and ready. Finally, it may be that there is some physical problem that you have overcome, such as a limp and are now able to work more often and therefore be more competitive in your next race.
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